The Data Behind St. Louis’ 2026 Health Plan Renewal Increases
The numbers coming out of 1/1/2026 renewals are… not subtle.
If you just wrapped open enrollment and your health insurance costs jumped, you’re not alone. We’ve been signaling a spike in medical trend for months—and now we’re seeing the actual renewal data.
Here’s what it shows.
WATCH: The Data Behind St. Louis’ 2026 Health Plan Renewal Increases
The 2026 Renewal Data: A Snapshot
This data reflects employers with January 1, 2026 effective dates.
To keep it meaningful, we isolated a very specific segment that included:
Geography: Greater St. Louis region
Employer Size: 10–100 employees
Renewal Period: 1/1/2026
This small employer segment gives us a clean view into what’s happening in a market that typically has less negotiating leverage and fewer risk-spreading advantages than larger groups.
Here’s what we found:
The average initial renewal increase for this segment was 16.75%
For small and mid-sized employers, that level of increase materially changes budget planning, employee contribution strategy, and overall compensation philosophy.
And that’s before plan design changes or mitigation strategies are applied.
Level Funded Plans Saw the Highest Impact
Now let’s narrow the lens even further.
The majority of employers in this 10–100 life segment are insured through level funded arrangements.
Across the book of business analyzed, level funded plans experienced the largest average increase at 20.75%.
That’s more than one-fifth higher costs year-over-year.
Level funding has historically been positioned as a cost-stabilizing bridge between fully insured and self-funded models. But in this cycle, it absorbed more of the inflationary pressure than many anticipated.
For employers operating on thin margins, a 20%+ renewal is not just inconvenient—it forces structural decisions.
So how did other funding models perform?
There were no true “safe shelters” from the current medical trend environment. However, performance varied by funding model.
Fully insured (traditional carriers): Experienced significant increases, generally tracking closely with broader market trend.
Level funded: Highest average increase in this segment (20.75%).
Self-funded employers: Fared better than both fully insured and level funded groups.
While not immune to cost pressure, self-funded plans demonstrated greater resilience in this cycle, likely due to:
Greater transparency into claims drivers
More flexibility in vendor strategy
Ability to adjust risk management levers
What This Data Tells Us
This isn’t about assigning blame. It’s about understanding trend.
Here’s what the data signals:
Small employers are feeling disproportionate pressure.
Level funded plans are not insulated from volatility.
Funding structure matters more than ever.
For many employers, the shock wasn’t that costs increased. It was the magnitude.
A mid-teens renewal used to feel extreme. Now, it’s becoming common.
Where to go from here
This 2026 renewal data isn’t meant to alarm — it’s meant to inform.
It’s the market.
The employers who navigate this environment successfully won’t be the ones reacting at renewal. They’ll be the ones:
Analyzing claims and risk drivers year-round
Evaluating whether their funding model still fits
Leveraging transparency and contracting strategy
Making proactive adjustments before trend compounds
That’s where the right benefits advisor makes a difference.
At Caravus, we work with employers to go beyond renewal negotiations. We dig into the data, evaluate funding structure, identify long-term risk patterns, and build strategies designed to bend the cost curve over time — not just offset one year’s increase.
In a market like this, you don’t need a advisor who simply delivers the renewal. You need a guide who helps you understand it and build a smarter path forward.
If you’re in the 10–100 life space in Greater St. Louis and your renewal felt unusually high, it’s worth a deeper look. The data tells a story. The right strategy changes the next chapter.